2023-11-30 克里：中美合作推动COP28取得成功

作为本届联合国气候大会的东道主，石油大国阿联酋能否促成国际协议，推动煤炭、石油和天然气退出？

逐步淘汰化石燃料“不可避免”且“至关重要”。阿联酋阿布扎比国家石油公司（ADNOC）首席执行官苏尔坦阿尔贾比尔（Sultan Al Jaber）在 COP28 前夕发表了如是看法。十年前，甚至哪怕一年前都很难想象一家龙头石油公司的高层会说出这样的话。这也反映了自《巴黎协定》签订以来相关话题发展的进程。

今年的联合国气候大会（COP28）将于 11 月 30 日在迪拜举行。放弃煤炭、石油和天然气的呼声日益增多，作为本届大会主席，贾比尔无法忽视这一点。

联合国秘书长古特雷斯上周表示：“如果不解决根源问题，也就是对化石燃料的依赖，就无法解决气候灾难问题。COP28 必须发出明确的信号，化石燃料时代已经到头了，且这一时代的终结不可避免。”

但是，贾比尔并没有辞去 ADNOC 首席执行官的本职工作，该公司的产量还在不断上升。这之中显然存在巨大的利益冲突。

尽管长期以来科学界一致认为燃烧化石燃料是气候危机的主要推手，但直到近期，联合国的气候决议中才就此达成政治共识。

2021 年，在英国格拉斯哥举行的第 26 届联合国气候大会上，各国达成了一项突破性的协议，决定逐步减少煤电。去年在埃及沙姆沙伊赫的第 27 届大会上，有约 80 个国家倡议将这一协议范围扩大到石油和天然气，但遭到了反对。今年，贾比尔的言论能否实际转化成国际协议呢？

1

逐步退出还是乘机牟利？

科学研究的结论已经很明确了：联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）指出，为了切实将全球升温控制在 1.5℃，我们需要大幅减少使用化石燃料。国际能源署（IEA）也认同，新的油气田已经没有发展空间了。

但是，因为仍然有利可图，采矿和钻探工作仍在继续。自从去年俄乌冲突爆发以来，油价的上涨更是刺激了这一发展。

联合国《2023 年生产差距报告》指出，前20大化石燃料生产国计划到 2030 年开采的化石燃料数量将是《巴黎协定》目标允许数量的两倍。

该图表展示了政府计划和预测的化石燃料产量与全球 1.5C 和 2C 温控目标允许产量之间的差距，可以发现目前差距仍然很大。来源：联合国《2023生产差距报告》

《巴黎协定》的首次全球盘点将在 COP28 结束时进行，这是一个纠正航向的重要机会。目前正在讨论的能源相关方案中，有两个要点得到了广泛支持：一是到 2030 年可再生能源装机增加至原来的三倍，二是将能源效率提高一倍。但在第三个要点，即逐步淘汰化石燃料方面分歧仍然十分明显。

联合国《2023 年生产差距报告》的主要作者之一、斯德哥尔摩环境研究所（SEI）的研究人员普洛伊阿查库尔维苏特（Ploy Achakulwisut）表示：“仅仅靠增加可再生能源规模是无法解决问题的。各国政府需要加大力度，在对待化石燃料方面做出更强硬的表态。接受完全淘汰是迈向协调和实施良好公正转型的第一步。”

2

分歧难消

究竟应该逐步淘汰化石燃料（phase down）还是完全淘汰化石燃料（phase out），各方争论不休。一方面，以“高雄心联盟”为旗帜的 15 个国家呼吁完全淘汰化石燃料的生产和使用：不加任何条件限制，没有任何借口。采取这类立场的国家包括像法国和西班牙这样的西方发达国家，也包括肯尼亚和埃塞俄比亚在内的非洲国家以及太平洋岛国。

而持相反立场的一方，如俄罗斯会对任何削减石油和天然气生产的提议说不。这些产业是俄罗斯的主要收入来源。俄罗斯近期在向联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）提交的文件中表示：“我们反对在任何规定或成果中以某种方式歧视任何特定能源来源或化石燃料种类，或是呼吁完全淘汰这些能源。”

在这态度鲜明的两方之间，一些发达国家以能源安全为辩护理由，继续开发石油和天然气。还有一些新兴经济体对任何可能制约其发展的因素持抵制态度。

图源：shutterstock

这些争论似乎都围绕一个核心概念：未加装减排设施（unabated）。

3

减排概念之争

目前，“未加装减排设施”这一概念尚未有获得广泛认可的定义，这是一个很重要的问题。化石燃料减排通常指通过碳捕集和封存（CCS）技术等手段，减少化石燃料在全生命周期过程中排放的温室气体数量。

但需要捕集多少百分比的排放，以及各国如何确保这种减排方法不是拖延战术，这些问题都尚未有定论。

欧洲独立气候智库 E3G 的化石燃料转型专家卡米拉芬宁（Camilla Fenning）告诉《气候之家新闻》：“关于减排的不同看法带来了较大不确定性，引发了许多无谓的争议，也使得切实完全淘汰化石燃料变得更加困难。明确定义会有很大帮助。”

富裕国家普遍呼吁对未加装减排设施的化石燃料进行某种形式的淘汰，这符合去年五月在广岛举行的 G7 会议上达成的协议。

但是，他们内部对“未加装减排设施”的解释并不一致。欧盟希望对技术修复手段的使用范围设定明确边界。一位欧盟谈判代表向《气候之家新闻》表示：“不应让对 CCS 的过分期望成为推迟气候行动的借口，这些技术无法使我们达成 2030 目标。从更长远的角度来看，那些难以减排的产业会需要这些技术，但还得看看实际可行的情况。”

与此同时，美国正期望通过大力推动 CCS 并控制甲烷泄漏来限制石油和天然气业务对气候的损害。这使其立场与沙特阿拉伯等石油国家以及 COP 28 东道主阿联酋更加接近。

2018年，美国德州 NRG 电厂的 Petra Nova CCS 设施，图源：路透社

中国气候特使解振华也对 CCS 技术表示支持，同时称在全球范围内完全淘汰化石燃料“不现实”。

目前，中国正同时扩大煤电和可再生能源产能，可能会成为达成化石燃料淘汰协议的一大阻力。在最新提交的文件中，中国强白熊资讯网调了“化石燃料在保障能源供应安全方面的重要作用”，并表示转型需要通过“先立新后废旧”来实现。

对于77国集团主席、古巴大使佩德罗路易斯佩德罗索奎斯塔（Pedro Luis Pedroso Cuesta）来说，发展需求优先于化石燃料淘汰。他对《气候之家新闻》表示：“对发展中国家来说，最重要的是消除贫困，并在可持续框架下保障自身发展权益。”

4

公平与资金问题

在许多发展中国家看来，签署任何协议之前先要解决公平问题。

来自非洲和印度的谈判代表计划敦促富裕国家作出承诺，能较世界上其他国家更快完全淘汰化石燃料。他们的立场基于“共同但有区别的责任”原则，即对气候变化负有最大责任的富裕国家在解决问题时应当发挥带头作用。

他们强调，一些发达国家在气候谈判中提倡的立场与其在本国的实际行动之间的矛盾。例如，根据国际石油变革组织（Oil Change International）的数据，到本世纪中叶，美国应对全球三分之一的石油和天然气增产计划负责，其次是加拿大和俄罗斯。

奎斯塔认为这“极其矛盾”。他补充说：“那些提出倡议（完全淘汰化石燃料）的人应该以身作则。我认为目前他们没有做到。”

另一个争议点是资金。

为了在淘汰化石燃料的同时大力投资可再生能源并提升能源效率，发展中国家需要大量资金。这些同样IuEHDndREt是 COP 28 能源相关讨论的要点。“发展中国家需要有更多财政支持作保证，这能增强其签署协议的信心。” E3G 的专家芬宁表示。

目前尚不清楚谁在哪些条件下需要提供资金。富裕国家与南非、印度尼西亚和越南之间的能源转型伙伴关系在过去一年里一直进展缓慢。开发银行和私营部门承诺的更高水平支持仍需要进一步落实。

5

活动家们时刻准备

在各国代表们斟酌言辞的同时，活动家们也在积极筹备，集中火力确保淘汰化石燃料仍是迪拜大会议程的重中之重。

有活动人士告诉《气候之家新闻》，考虑到阿联酋为压制异议设立的严格规定，估计示威和抗议活动仅限于在联合国指定区域内进行。但他们承诺以更强的创造力和更好的协调能力保证效果。

活动人士计划对任何阻碍化石燃料相关协议的人进行施压。届时大量政府和产业游说者将涌入阿联酋。

国际石油变革组织的活动家科林雷斯（Collin Rees）表示：“我们前所未有地在联合国层面接近完全淘汰化石燃料的决定，这也意味着化石燃料相关行业会更强有力地提出反对。这个行业不得不站出来展示自己的真面目。因此在公共视野中进行这场斗争将非常重要。”

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Phasing down fossil fuels is “inevitable” and “essential”. It is hard to imagine the CEO of an oil major saying that 10 years, five years, even one year ago.

It’s a measure of how far the discourse has moved since the Paris Agreement that Sultan Al Jaber has taken that line in the run-up to Cop28.

As president of the UN climate summit starting in Dubai on 30 November, Al Jaber could not ignore mounting calls to quit coal, oil and gas.

“We cannot address climate catastrophe without addressing its root cause: fossil fuel dependence,” said UN chief Antonio Guterres last wee白熊资讯网k. “Cop28 must send a clear signal that the fossil fuel age is out of gas – that its end is inevitable.”

But Al Jaber has not quit the day job as chief of Emirati state-owned oil company Adnoc, which is increasing production. The conflict of interest is writ large.

And despite the longstanding scientific consensus that burning fossil fuels is the main driver of the climate crisis, there was no political consensus to name them in UN climate decisions until very recently.

At the 2021 climate summit in Glasgow, UK, countries made a breakthrough agreement to phase down coal power generation. A group of around 80 countries pushed to extend that to oil and gas in Sharm-el-Sheik last year, but were stonewalled. Will Al Jaber’s rhetoric translate into an international agreement?

Phasing down or cashing in?

The science is clear: we need to substantially reduce the use of fossil fuels to stand a realistic chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said. There is no room for new oil and gas fields, the International Energy Agency agreed.

While there is money to be made, though, mining and drilling continue. Buoyant oil prices since Russia invaded Ukraine last year have spurred development.

The top 20 fossil fuel-producing nations plan to extract twice as much by 2030 as the level consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement goals, according to the UN’s 2023 Production Gap report.

The first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement is due to conclude at Cop28 – a prime opportunity for a course correction. Two elements of the energy package under negotiation have broad support: a tripling of renewable energy capacity and a doubling of energy efficiency by 2030. But on a third plank – the fossil fuel phase-out – divisions remain stark.

“We are not going to solve the problem by scaling up renewables alone,” says Ploy Achakulwisut, a research fellow at SEI and one of the UN report’s authors. “Governments need to step up and commit to stronger language on fossil fuels now. Accepting a phase-out is the first step towards coordinating and implementing a well-managed and equitable transition.”

A fractured field

On one end of the spectrum, fifteen countries under the banner “high ambition coalition” are calling for a phase-out of fossil fuels production and use: no ifs, no buts. The group includes rich Western countries like France and Spain, African states, including Kenya and Ethiopia, and Pacific island nations.

On the opposite end, Russia says nyet to any proposal of cutting the oil and gas production that makes up most of its revenues. “We oppose any provisions or outcomes that somehow discriminate or call for phase-out of any specific energy source or fossil fuel type,” the country’s recent submission to the UNFCCC said.

In between are developed countries justifying continued oil and gas development on energy security grounds and emerging economies resistant to any check on their growth.

One word is likely to dominate discussions: unabated.

Abatement fight

A universally-recognised definition of “unabated” does not exist – and that is a big part of the problem. Fossil fuel abatement generally refers to efforts to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emitted throughout their life cycle, chiefly by using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.

But what percentage of emissions needs to be captured and how countries ensure this is not a delaying tactic are open questions.

Rich countries all call for some form of phase-out of unabated fossil fuels, in line with what was agreed at a G7 meeting in Hiroshima last May.

Their interpretation is not univocal, however.

The EU wants to designate some clear boundaries around the use of technofixes. “Exaggerated expectations from CCS should not be a pretext to delay climate action now,” an EU negotiator told Climate Home. “It will not deliver what we need before 2030. In the longer term, we will need it in hard-to-abate sectors, but we need to see what is possible.”

Meanwhile, the US is betting big on CCS and curbs on methane leakage to limit the climate damage of oil and gas operations. It is a position that brings it closer to petrostates like Saudi Arabia and Cop28 hosts UAE.

“Differing views on abatement are causing hostages to fortune and allowing fractures to appear that are not helpful in terms of actually achieving fossil fuel phaseout,” Camilla Fenning, a fossil fuel transition expert at E3G, told Climate Home. “A clear definition is something that would be very useful.”

China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua has also come out in favour of CCS while calling a global fossil fuel phase-out “unrealistic”.

The country, which is expanding both coal power capacity and renewables, risks being a major blocker to an agreement. Highlighting “the significant role of fossil fuels in ensuring energy supply security”, its latest submission said the transition needs to be achieved by “establishing the new before abolishing the old”.

For Cuban Ambassador Pedro Luis Pedroso Cuesta, chair of the G77 group of developing countries, development needs take priority over a fossil fuel phase-out. “The most important thing for developing countries is eradicating poverty and guaranteeing a right to development within a sustainability framework,” he told Climate Home.

Equity and money questions

For many developing countries, equity concerns will need to be addressed before signing on to any deal.

Negotiators from Africa and India are planning to push rich nations to commit to phasing out fossil fuels faster than the rest of the world. Their position is based on the “common but differentiated responsibilities” principle, where the wealthy countries who//www.czybx.com are most responsible for causing climate change take the lead in tackling it.

They will highlight the contradictions between what some developed countries advocate for in climate talks and what they do at home. For example, the US is responsible for more than one-third of the expansion of global oil and gas production planned by mid-century, followed by Canada and Russia, according to Oil Change International.

Cuba’s Pedroso Cuesta called this a “severe contradiction”. “Those who are proposing these initiatives [fossil fuel phase out] should lead by example. I don’t think they are currently,” he added.

Another sticking point is money. A huge amount of it will be required for developing countries to wean themselves off fossil fuels while investing heavily in renewables and energy efficiency, the other elements of the COP28 energy package. “Developing countries need to be given assurances about more financial support to encourage confidence in signing up for those commitments”, says E3G’s Fenning

It is not yet clear who is going to provide finance and on what terms. Energy transition partnerships between rich countries and South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam have stuttered over the last year.

Promises of significantly higher level白熊资讯网s of support from development banks and the private sector still need to materialize.

Activists gearing up

While country delegates refine their rhetoric, activists are also gearing up their campaigning firepower to make sure a fossil fuel phase-out remains top of the agenda in Dubai.

Demonstrations and protests are expected to be limited to the UN-designated zones, given the harsh rules clamping down on dissent in the UAE, campaigners told Climate Home. But more creativity and better coordination will ensure impact, they promise.

Campaigners are planning to target anyone blocking a deal on fossil fuels. Not only governments but also industry lobbyists expected to descend onto the petrostate in vast numbers.

“The fact that we’re closer than ever to a decision on fossil fuel phase-out in a UN space means that the industry is mobilising more strongly to oppose this,” says Collin Rees, an activist at Oil Change International. “The industry has been forced to come out and show its face. Having that fight in full public view will be very important”.

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